The Sudan: Countdown to a Showdown

"It is not easy -- not at all. In fact it does look complicated and actually disturbing, to tell the truth," said an informed official on the situation of Sudan as it counts down to a crucial and controversial referendum on the unity or separation of this largest African state.

According to the assessment of this official and to Western and Arab diplomats the 9 January referendum on the unity or separation of the south of Sudan is more or less the date for the beginning of a conflict that might seriously disturb the stability of Egypt's vital southern neighbour -- and some add firmly that of East Africa in general.

Officials from the southern Sudanese government say it is only a matter of formality: do the referendum and announce independence. The separation of the south, they insist, is the choice of the overwhelming majority of the southerners. "Our people have suffered so much under the rule of the north, especially the current Islamic regime. Our people have been treated like slaves and they have the right to be free," said one source from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). And if this "freedom" is not secured voluntarily then it would be "won by war". "We fought for 20 years to push away the north from imposing its rule on us and we are willing to fight for another 20 years and more to push away slavery," he added.

The north and south of Sudan fought for over two decades and the war ended with a peace agreement signed in 2005 that allowed for a referendum on separation of the south of Sudan to be held on 9 January 2011.

Today, concerned Egyptian officials insist that the time is not right for the referendum. "Not because we want to delay it; no, we just want to do it the right way and we are not the only ones who say that preparations for the referendum are incomplete," said the same official.

The committee in charge of conducting the referendum is far from being ready for the 9 January deadline. Meanwhile, north and south negotiators have failed repeatedly to agree on a list of issues that should be resolved prior to the referendum -- as stipulated in the 2005 peace agreement -- including the fate of the oil rich Abyei and the borders between the north and south.

Without an agreement on these two matters, officials from the north and south of Sudan agree a war is likely, as do their Egyptian, Arab, African and Western counterparts. "They could well fight over Abyei -- the big oil reservoir," suggested a Western diplomat.

Meanwhile, the government of the south -- with considerable support from Washington and many Nordic states, as sources suggest -- is determined to turn down all proposals for a limited delay of a few weeks to allow for the disagreements to be settled and for the logistics to be completed in order to have a peaceful referendum.

And Egypt's worst fear today is that the day after the referendum would be one of considerable tension -- to say the least.

Informed sources tell Al-Ahram Weekly that beyond the recent skirmishes reported during the past few weeks there are signs that cannot be ignored of war preparations. And each side has its own supporters from within and without the region. According to the same sources, some East African states are already mobilising troops on the borders with Sudan "in anticipation of a breakout of violence".

"It is not just about the separation but about the economic and political price of this separation -- not just for those in the north and south but also for Sudan's immediate neighbours, especially Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda," argued the Egyptian source.

For Egypt it is one thing that Sudan's other neighbours "feel legitimately apprehensive" and it is quite another for these neighbours to get involved in Sudan as concerned officials note. However, according to the same officials, both scenarios are possible and this means either a renewed Sudanese civil war or a regional war of sorts -- especially between Eritrea and Ethiopia -- on Sudan's border.

"Our line is clear. We don't send troops out of Egypt but we have to carefully observe the situation," said an Egyptian diplomat. He added that "whatever happens" Egypt would work to keep the best of relations with both the north and south -- and hopefully work to help the north and south steer clear of war's way "although this seems increasingly unlikely".

The conflict between the north and south of Sudan is further compounded with the failure of the Sudanese government to find a peaceful settlement with the Darfur rebel groups. And according to one well-informed African diplomat there are hardly any signs that the situation could get better between the rebel movements and the regime of the north. It could actually get worse, the source suggested, if the rebels decided that they too should pursue independence or if they thought it in their interest to join the southern state "although this second scenario is very unlikely".

Cairo cannot turn a blind eye to the tense relations in the north between the ruling regime and its political opposition or to the crucial situation of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir who is faced with an escalated legal campaign from the International Criminal Court for crimes committed by his regime in Darfur during the past five years.

In the latest development Egypt is not excluding a "small possibility" of a "technical delay" that could be agreed between the UN and the government of the south. These few weeks delay would offer "a window of opportunity to resolve the pending issues" in order to "minimise" the chance of the eruption of large-scale violence, according to informed sources.

In short, Egypt seems to be getting ready for a day where the stability, not just the unity, of Sudan would be seriously challenged.