The Revolution Will Be Televised, May Be

Indeed, in his article titled Why the Tunisian Revolution Cannot Be Replicated in Eritrea Yosief equates the notion of "peaceful and non-violent resistance" to the failed "self-reliance" of the regime in Eritrea. He calls this strategy "impotent". He rejects and argues against the concept and strategy of non-violence and, instead, argues for intervention by Ethiopia in Eritrea's internal affairs. He attacks the idea of non-violent resistance but would have no qualms if Ethiopia invades Eritrea tomorrow and gets rid of the regime.  Since Yosief is asking for evidence of any viability of peaceful and non-violent resistance in Eritrea, and trashing the concept as a result, let me turn the table and ask him the following: What evidence is there that (1) Ethiopia is willing to do Yosief's or the opposition's bidding  and invade Eritrea in order to get rid of Isaias Afwerki's regime , and, most importantly, (2) what evidence do Yosief and those who advocate for intervention have that  Ethiopia,  assuming they would be able to depose the current regime, would peacefully and willingly hand over power to Eritreans and get out of Eritrea? I do not question Ethiopia's and TPLF sincerity in regards to their stated policy towards Eritrea's sovereignty. But what guarantees do we have against any outcome of a military intervention? War and violence have a way generating unexpected results. These are important questions the opposition, specially those who advocate for intervention, must answer. I believe that there is no evidence that Ethiopia is interested in intervening in Eritrea's internal affairs.  I am sure they would be happy if Isaias's regime is no more in Eritrea. Besides, the Ethiopian regime has its hands full in Ethiopia proper. I do not believe they would like to entangle themselves in Eritrean affairs.  I am sure they would not mind getting rid of the scourge in Eritrea. But, I don't believe they would want to do it for us.

I do agree with Yosief that the main obstacle against a peaceful and non-violent resistance is the brutality of the regime. Long ago it seems the dictator calculated that the Eritrean youth must be kept far away from the center of action, the capital.  To do so, he concocted Sawa. The calculation is now clear.  He knew what the students and the youth in general are capable of, and he managed to keep them away in trenches wasting their youth. That is his calculation and has worked miracles for him for the past twenty years.  The question is: How do we reverse that? In my mind, there is no alternative but for the Eritrean people inside and outside to realize these designs of the dictator and work to end the perpetual military service to create a conducive environment for peaceful and non-violent revolution to take place. This, of course, is an integral part of the opposition's and the people's struggle to get rid of the Isaias regime.

Thus, while I agree with Yosief that the current situation in Eritrea is not suitable for non-violent resistance, it does not mean it will never be. Mind you, the non-violent resistance that succeeded to oust the Tunisian dictator was not possible a year ago. Otherwise, it would have happened a year, two years ago, or ten years ago. The dictator in Tunisia ruled for twenty-three years before circumstances became conducive enough for the Tunisian people to rise up and overthrow his regime. As we speak, the Egyptian people seem to be on their way to duplicating Tunisia. Such outright defiance of Mubarak was unthinkable a few weeks ago. Mubarak, a dictator for thirty years since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981, is on the verge of losing his iron grip on power. God speed is all I can say to the people of Egypt: "kemaKum yemaslo hzbi Ertra".  Obviously, circumstances seem to be ripe in Egypt as well.

Therefore, we cannot give up on peaceful and non-violent alternative as a strategy.  I believe Eritrea's time will come and the dictator will be running around the world looking for an asylum somewhere, just as the Tunisian dictator is doing right now. Circumstances will have to be ripe, they will have to change for the better. And I believe they will.